View 10/2001
The Contrarian's View
Vol. XVI, #3, October 33, 2001
The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
PLAYING THE BUBBLE
The other night my wife and I were out with friends for a late
dinner. Or, more accurately, we were out for a late dinner, as
is our style, and they had joined us for a snack. In the course
of the conversation (which included asking me for my opinion on
the direction of the stock market.... my wife's eyes began to
glaze over....), they commented that with interest rates dropping so dramatically, they had just refinanced their mortgage -
15 years at 6-1/4%.
I was surprised they even had a mortgage, for they're both
older than we are. (When people ask them about retirement, they
have begun to reply, we are retired - and for their retirement
jobs, she's a full-time lawyer and he's a full-time college
professor.) The first, and probably unkind, thing out of my
mouth was, I guess today the banks don't expect you to outlive
your mortgage. No, they don't, was the reply.
And now you know why I expect the bubble to return. When the
Federal Reserve began to ease short-term interest rates last
January, that was the time to decide whether they were moving
quickly enough to prevent the collapse of confidence that would
plunge us into a situation like the Great Depression or Japan
in the 1990s. Really, the issue was: Had the Fed lost control
(the ability to manipulate consumer confidence) as in the
1930s, or would it succeed again, as it has in every instance
of easing since the 1940s?
Look at the table. There are a lot of plus-signs (stock-market
gains) in this table, which shows all Federal Reserve discount
rate cut sequences of 5 or more successive rate cuts since the
1920s. In each rate-cut column is shown the number of weeks
since the first rate cut (in the leftmost column), and the
percent gain or loss in the DJIA six months after the date of
the rate cut for that column. The rightmost column has the
cumulative effect - the total Dow gain or loss from the first
rate cut, six months after the last rate cut in the sequence (8
maximum), and the number of weeks that had elapsed to reach
that total gain or loss figure.
The early 1930s stand out as a stark exception to the rule that
the Fed always wins. For the other sequences, there is not one
that has delivered less than a double-digit gain in the Dow.
With the present situation, it's simply too early to tell the
outcome. It certainly looks like we might be on the way to a
debacle like 1929-32. But we could also be tracing out a sequence like that of the mid-1930s, where the easing didn't take
hold right away (not surprising; consumer confidence was totally crushed by the Great Depression), but did eventually.
Oh, but Nick, you say, most of those interest-rate easings
began when stocks were undervalued or fairly valued, not when
they were historically overpriced, as they were early this year
and still are today. The only easing in the table that began
with stocks still overvalued was in 1929.
True.... up to a point. The closest pattern to today's is 1970,
coming off the high-tech craze of the late 1960s. Stocks then
were fairly valued in the perspective of the times; only later
was the overvaluation obvious. And in 1970, the Fed did have
success, triggering the "Nifty Fifty" craze. If the table tells
us anything, it is that the Fed is more likely to succeed than
fail, but that the rate of increase, and eventual new highs,
will be lower if they begin easing when stocks are still overpriced. For example, the early 1980s easings saw stocks (when
they were historically undervalued) increase at an average of
.78% and .74% per week (linearly), while the 1970 increase
(from fairly-valued levels) was only at a rate of .41% per
week. Thus, a return of the bubble is not likely to drive the
Dow more than 15% to 20% higher than the highs in the bubble
just partially-deflated.... or Dow 13,000-14,500.
Is it reasonable to expect today's pattern to follow the path
of the 1930s? Of course it is. History tells us that all bubbles eventually burst - no exceptions. It is the path taken
during the bursting that's the issue. It's not just down, down,
down - it wasn't that way even in the 1930s.
The Japanese experience tells us that central bankers can and
do goof. The question, of course, is: Is this the time that
ours goofed?
Unlike the 1930s, this time our Federal Reserve is absolutely,
positively convinced that it has the tools to ameliorate the
fallout from a popped bubble. And what's more, it has also
convinced the public that it can do this. And we have the Fed
easing at twice the rate of 1929-1930, and more than twice the
rate of Japan's central bankers in 1990-92. And we have the
"plunge protection team" ready to prop up stock prices (and
apparently doing so). And, as our late-night friends have illustrated, we have the public refinancing its debt at lower
rates, so the debt burden it carries during the unwinding is
less onerous. And now we also have a war of necessity (that is,
we were attacked and must respond) which is inconsistent with
dour economic times.
If past post-WWII patterns prevail, the public will at first be
cautious with its ability to borrow at lower rates.... in the
beginning, just retiring the higher-cost debt without adding to
its debt dollar total.... but as the economy improves, it will
then take on additional debt, and we're off to the races again.
Now, whether or not individuals in a free society should be
under the sway of a fascist, centrally-directed monetary system
which seeks to keep the economy humming and the country out of
recessions by manipulating our emotions is a valid question,
one which certainly deserves a good answer. But that doesn't
give us a clue to the outcome of these manipulations. We
shouldn't expect the Fed to fail just because we don't like the
system.... you can lose a lot of money that way.
Each of these reflations and busts needs to be judged as it
occurs, based on an analysis of whether such extremes were
reached that they are beyond repair by any central authority
(Japan in 1989, maybe), and with an eye on history, not just
the history of great bubbles of the past, but also the more
recent history of total control over short-term interest rates
by a central bank in an era of totally-fiat money.
In early 2001 I concluded that, this time around, the Fed had
enough clout to pull it off. Subsequent events have shown what
a close call this was.... unlike most of the postwar easings,
stocks have yet to respond in a big way, and certainly it is
clear that without aggressive Federal Reserve action we almost
certainly would be revisiting the Great Depression,
21st-century style. But I still conclude, the Fed will win
again this time.
In a few years, 2004 or 2005 or 2006, after we've gone through
another cycle of Fed tightening and face yet another easing,
I'll get to revisit the question: This time, will the Fed succeed or fail? And, I'll weigh the evidence, and I'll choose.
This is not a great way to invest. One would like to buy stocks
when they're undervalued, and switch to something else when
they're overvalued.... as this has, historically, been both
quite safe and profitable. With a Federal Reserve simply unwilling to accept a recession of any magnitude and perfectly
willing to accept a bubble of any size.... in other words,
totally lacking in discipline.... this may mean buying stocks
when they're historically overvalued (1993-95) and dumping them
when they're obscenely overvalued (1999-2000). It's sad to see
my old Rule #1 (don't overpay for the merchandise) replaced by
a new Rule #1 (dance with the Fed). Now we have a Rule #1 corollary.... dance with the Fed, for only as long as you think
it's going to succeed. And if you think it's going to fail,
head for the hills. Your timing may not be the best, but at
least you'll sleep soundly at night.
QUOTES FOR THE MONTH
I noticed in the latest Lipper mutual fund data that the average equity mutual fund is up only 43% in the past five years.
This is an annual rate of only 7% which is not that much better
than a money-market fund which has a lot less risk. The returns are much better if you go back ten years but then that
was at the bottom of a small bear market when stock ownership
was much lower than it is today. Of course investors that got
caught up in the technology bubble are probably doing far worse
than 7% a year. But the main point is that the fantasy of
indefinite 20% gains per year has certainly been dashed. - Marc
Sexton
A modest prediction: When Greenspan-san began cutting rates the
fed funds rate was 6.5% and the savings rate was near zero.
Before the present trend is exhausted, the savings rate will be
6.5% and the fed funds rate will be near zero. - Bill Bonner
STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK
It now looks as if the "quiet secondary bottom" I expected
stocks to make in November will be at higher levels than the
lows reached in the week after the week of the attack on the
World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Actually, stocks have more
or less been climbing out of the crater created by that attack,
and now look as if they are "on track" to resume the bear market decline at the rate that was in force just before the attack.
It is this trendline of decline that I expect to be broken in
November, or December at the latest. Sometime around Thanksgiving, I may shift more of my TIAA-CREF retirement funds from
bonds to stocks. Then again, I may not, since bonds have been
doing really well, and are likely to continue in that mode for
at least a few more months. And I hate to give up a good thing
going in favor of a strategy that, so far this year, has been
dismal, though I still see
2002, and maybe 2003, as being excellent years to be riding
stocks.
PORTFOLIO REVIEW
The combined performance of the portfolios (including predecessors, but excluding "PIG" and TIAA-CREF) from January 1987 to
the present, adjusted for the dilutive effect of added shares,
is -12.30%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.87%. For
comparison purposes, from January 1, 1987 to November 2, 2001
(14.838 years), the CREF stock unit value (whose performance
closely parallels the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) has
risen 415.50%, for a compound annual rate of return of 11.69%.
WARNING: I am a rotten stockpicker. Prices shown are as of
November 2.
A. "Phoenix" -real portfolio, begun on October 1, 1995.
SUMMARY - "Phoenix":
Original cost (adjusted): $ 4,998.21
Present value: $ 3,972.59
Increase: $-1,025.62 [-20.52%]
The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's
Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -9.87%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.68%.
COMMENT on "Phoenix": There is no change from the last issue
(cash balance is not up to date).
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 9,024.00
Present value: $15,458.93
Increase: $ 6,434.93 [+71.31%]
COMMENT on "PIG":
The PIGs' Web page is at
http://www.assumption.edu/HTML/Faculty/Kantar/WPigs.html
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $ 9,513.87
Increase: $ 1,187.68 [+14.26%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors)
from January 1, 1987 to the present is -13.25%, for a compound
annual rate of return of -0.94%.
COMMENT on IRA: There is no change from the last issue.
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought
13Mar1992 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41
29Apr1992 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19
19Jun1992 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55
29Jun1992 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74
24Jul1992 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61
29Oct1992 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61
23Dec1992 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78
16Jan1995 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan1995 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun1998 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
23Sep1999 MM@18.99 I-I bond@27.56 (53.32%)
17-18May2000 rate adjustment to 7.25% in SRA
12-13Jul2000 rate adjustment to 7.5% in SRA
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional bond@58.62 [22.77%]
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional eq-idx@75.79 [4.56%]
1Feb2001 i-i bond@31.78 eq-idx@80.84 [26.76%]
20Sep2001 bond@61.99 eq-idx@58.42 [2.44%]
Values, 2Nov2001: stock, 153.36; equity-index, 64.47; MM, 21.25; bond, 63.51; inflation-indexed
bond, 34.78; TIAA current yield in SRA, 7.5% (new money at 6.0% through February 28, 2002)
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%; 1998: 5.72%; 1999: 5.12%; 2000: 9.99%
Gain, January 1 through September 30, 2001: -1.84%
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (13.75 years): 210.98%
Compound annual rate of return: 8.60% (My long-term target: in excess of 10%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained
369.02%, for a compound annual rate of return of 11.90%.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend":
We have a lot of waffling in
late October, but the latest signal is a BUY on November 1. For
the record: "Timer's Trend" is not good at picking bottoms....
it's always late.... but when it waffles, then is followed by a
solid BUY signal (too early to tell if that's the case yet),
it's a good sign that the most profitable phase of the new bull
market is about to get underway.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Mon 29 Jan 01 . | . # |10702.19 | . + *
Tue 30 Jan 01 . | . # |10881.20 | . + *
Wed 31 Jan 01 . | . # |10887.36 | . + *
Thu 1 Feb 01 . | . # |10983.63 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 2 Feb 01 . | # |10864.10 | . + *
Mon 5 Feb 01 . | . # |10965.85 | . + *
Tue 6 Feb 01 . | . # |10957.42 | . + *
Wed 7 Feb 01 . | # |10946.72 | . + *
Thu 8 Feb 01 . | .# |10880.55 | . + *
Fri 9 Feb 01 . | # |10781.45 | . + *
Mon 12 Feb 01 . | . # |10946.77 | . + *
Tue 13 Feb 01 . | .# |10903.32 | . + *
Wed 14 Feb 01 . | # |10795.41 | . + *
Thu 15 Feb 01 . | . # |10891.02 | . + *
Fri 16 Feb 01 . |# . |10799.82 | .+ *
Tue 20 Feb 01 . |# . |10730.88 | + *
Wed 21 Feb 01 . & . |10526.28 |~+~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Feb 01 . & . |10562.61 |+. *
Fri 23 Feb 01 . #I . |10441.90 + . *
Mon 26 Feb 01 . I . # |10642.53 |+. *
Tue 27 Feb 01 . I # |10636.88 |+. *
Wed 28 Feb 01 . I .# |10495.28 | + *-------------------
Thu 1 Mar 01 . I# . |10450.14 | + *
Fri 2 Mar 01 . | .# |10466.31 | .+ *
Mon 5 Mar 01 . | . # |10562.30 | .+ *
Tue 6 Mar 01 . | . # |10591.22 | . + *
Wed 7 Mar 01 . | . # |10729.60 | . + *
Thu 8 Mar 01 . | .# |10585.25 | . + *
Fri 9 Mar 01 . | . # |10644.62 | . + *
Mon 12 Mar 01 #. I . |10208.25 | .+ *
Tue 13 Mar 01 . & . |10290.80 | + *
Wed 14 Mar 01 #. I . {| 9873.46 |*+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 15 Mar 01 . I #. |10031.28 + . *
Fri 16 Mar 01 #. I . | 9823.41 | - *
Mon 19 Mar 01 . I # | 9959.11 |-. *
Tue 20 Mar 01 . & . | 9720.76 |-. *
Wed 21 Mar 01 #. I . | 9487.00 |-.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Mar 01 # . I . | 9389.48 | .- *
Fri 23 Mar 01 . I # | 9504.78 |-. *
Mon 26 Mar 01 . I . # | 9687.53 |-. *
Tue 27 Mar 01 . I . # | 9947.54 + . *
Wed 28 Mar 01 . #I . | 9785.35 |+. *
Thu 29 Mar 01 . & . | 9799.06 | + *
Fri 30 Mar 01 . I # | 9878.78 | + *
Mon 2 Apr 01 . #I . | 9777.93 |+. *
Tue 3 Apr 01 # . I . | 9485.71 | - *
Wed 4 Apr 01 .# I . | 9515.42 | - *
Thu 5 Apr 01 . I . # | 9918.05 |-. *
Fri 6 Apr 01 #. I . | 9791.09 | - *
Mon 9 Apr 01 . I # | 9845.15 |-. *
Tue 10 Apr 01 . | . # |10102.74 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 11 Apr 01 . & . |10013.47 | + *
Thu 12 Apr 01 . | # |10126.94 |+. *
Mon 16 Apr 01 . I #. |10158.56 | + *
Tue 17 Apr 01 . | .# |10216.73 | .+ *
Wed 18 Apr 01 . | . # }|10615.83 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Apr 01 . | .# |10693.71 | . + *
Fri 20 Apr 01 . # . |10579.85 | .+ *
Mon 23 Apr 01 . # . [|10532.23 | .+ *
Tue 24 Apr 01 . | #. |10454.34 | + *
Wed 25 Apr 01 . | . # ]|10625.20 | + *
Thu 26 Apr 01 . | . # |10692.35 | + *
Fri 27 Apr 01 . | . # |10810.05 | . + *
Mon 30 Apr 01 . | . # |10734.97 | . + *
Tue 1 May 01 . | . # |10898.34 | . + *
Wed 2 May 01 . | .# |10876.68 | . + *
Thu 3 May 01 . |# . |10795.65 | . + *
Fri 4 May 01 . | . # |10951.24 | . + *
Mon 7 May 01 . | .# |10935.17 | . + *
Tue 8 May 01 . | # |10883.51 | .+ *
Wed 9 May 01 . | # |10866.98 | .+ *
Thu 10 May 01 . | . # |10910.44 | . + *
Fri 11 May 01 . | # |10821.31 | .+ *
Mon 14 May 01 . | . # |10877.33 | .+ *
Tue 15 May 01 . | . # |10872.97 | . + *
Wed 16 May 01 . | . # |11215.92 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 17 May 01 . | . # |11248.58 | . + *
Fri 18 May 01 . | . # |11301.74 @| . + *
Mon 21 May 01 . | . # |11337.92 @| . + *
Tue 22 May 01 . | .# |11257.24 @| . + *
Wed 23 May 01 . |# . |11105.51 | . + *
Thu 24 May 01 . | # |11122.42 | . + *
Fri 25 May 01 . | #. |11005.37 | .+ *
Tue 29 May 01 . | #. |11039.14 | + *
Wed 30 May 01 . #| . |10872.64 |+. *
Thu 31 May 01 . | . # |10911.94 | + *
Fri 1 Jun 01 . | .# |10990.41 | + *
Mon 4 Jun 01 . | . # |11061.52 | .+ *
Tue 5 Jun 01 . | . # |11175.84 | .+ *
Wed 6 Jun 01 . | #. |11070.24 | . + *
Thu 7 Jun 01 . | .# |11090.74 | . + *
Fri 8 Jun 01 . | #. |10977.00 | .+ *
Mon 11 Jun 01 . |# . |10922.09 | .+ *
Tue 12 Jun 01 . | #. |10948.38 | + *
Wed 13 Jun 01 . | #. |10871.62 | + *
Thu 14 Jun 01 # I . |10690.13 +~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 15 Jun 01 . & . |10623.64 + . *
Mon 18 Jun 01 . & . |10645.38 + . *
Tue 19 Jun 01 . I# . |10596.67 + . *
Wed 20 Jun 01 . I #. |10647.33 + . *
Thu 21 Jun 01 . I .# |10715.43 |+. *
Fri 22 Jun 01 . I #. |10604.59 |+. *
Mon 25 Jun 01 . & . |10504.22 |+. *
Tue 26 Jun 01 . I #. |10472.48 | + *
Wed 27 Jun 01 . | #. |10434.84 | + *
Thu 28 Jun 01 . | . # |10566.21 | + *
Fri 29 Jun 01 . | . # |10502.40 | + *
Mon 2 Jul 01 . | . # |10593.72 | .+ *
Tue 3 Jul 01 . | # |10571.11 | . + *
Thu 5 Jul 01 . # . |10479.86 | .+ *
Fri 6 Jul 01 # I . |10252.68 |~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 9 Jul 01 . I# . |10299.40 |+. *
Tue 10 Jul 01 . #I . |10175.64 + . *
Wed 11 Jul 01 .# I . {|10241.02 |-. *
Thu 12 Jul 01 . I # ]|10478.99 |-. *
Fri 13 Jul 01 . | .# }|10539.06 |+. *
Mon 16 Jul 01 . #I . |10472.12 + . *
Tue 17 Jul 01 . | # |10606.39 |+. *
Wed 18 Jul 01 . I# . |10569.83 | + *
Thu 19 Jul 01 . | .# |10610.00 | + *
Fri 20 Jul 01 . |# . |10576.65 |+. *
Mon 23 Jul 01 . #I . |10424.42 |+. *
Tue 24 Jul 01 # I . {|10241.12 + . *
Wed 25 Jul 01 . I # |10405.67 + . *
Thu 26 Jul 01 . | .# }|10455.63 + . *
Fri 27 Jul 01 . | .# |10416.67 |+. *
Mon 30 Jul 01 . | .# |10401.72 | + *
Tue 31 Jul 01 . | . # |10522.81 | . + *
Wed 1 Aug 01 . | .# |10510.01 | . + *
Thu 2 Aug 01 . | .# |10551.18 | . + *
Fri 3 Aug 01 . | # |10512.78 | . + *
Mon 6 Aug 01 . |# . |10401.31 | .+ *
Tue 7 Aug 01 . | .# |10458.74 | .+ *
Wed 8 Aug 01 . # . |10293.50 | + *
Thu 9 Aug 01 . | #. |10298.56 | + *
Fri 10 Aug 01 . | .# |10416.25 | + *
Mon 13 Aug 01 . | # |10415.91 | + *
Tue 14 Aug 01 . | .# |10412.17 | + *
Wed 15 Aug 01 . | # |10345.95 | .+ *
Thu 16 Aug 01 . |# . |10392.52 | .+ *
Fri 17 Aug 01 . #| . |10240.78 | + *
Mon 20 Aug 01 . | # |10320.07 | + *
Tue 21 Aug 01 . | #. |10174.14 |+. *
Wed 22 Aug 01 . | .# |10276.90 |+. *
Thu 23 Aug 01 . | #. |10229.15 | + *
Fri 24 Aug 01 . | . # |10423.17 | .+ *
Mon 27 Aug 01 . | #. |10382.35 | .+ *
Tue 28 Aug 01 . # . |10222.03 | + *
Wed 29 Aug 01 . # . |10090.90 |+. *
Thu 30 Aug 01 # I . | 9919.58 +~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 31 Aug 01 . I # | 9949.75 + . *
Tue 4 Sep 01 . I #. | 9997.49 + . *
Wed 5 Sep 01 # I . {|10033.27 |-. *
Thu 6 Sep 01 # . I . | 9840.84 | - *
Fri 7 Sep 01 # . I . | 9605.85 | - *
Mon 10 Sep 01 # I . | 9605.51 | .- *
Mon 17 Sep 01 # . I . * | 8920.70 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 18 Sep 01 # . I . | 8903.40 @| . - *
Wed 19 Sep 01 # . I . | 8759.13 @| . - *
Thu 20 Sep 01 # . I . | 8376.21 @|~.~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 21 Sep 01 # . I . | 8235.81 @| . - *
Mon 24 Sep 01 . & . | 8603.86 @| . - *
Tue 25 Sep 01 # I . | 8659.97 | . - *
Wed 26 Sep 01 # . I . | 8567.39 | . - *
Thu 27 Sep 01 # I . | 8681.42 | . - *
Fri 28 Sep 01 . I #. | 8847.56 | - *
Mon 1 Oct 01 #. I . | 8836.83 | .- *
Tue 2 Oct 01 . I# . | 8950.59 | - *
Wed 3 Oct 01 . | # | 9123.78 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 4 Oct 01 . |# . | 9060.88 + . *
Fri 5 Oct 01 . #| . | 9119.77 + . *
Mon 8 Oct 01 . #| . | 9067.94 + . *
Tue 9 Oct 01 . #I . | 9052.44 + . *
Wed 10 Oct 01 . | .# | 9240.86 + . *
Thu 11 Oct 01 . | . # }| 9410.45 |+. *
Fri 12 Oct 01 . #| . [| 9344.16 |+. *
Mon 15 Oct 01 . # . | 9347.62 |+. *
Tue 16 Oct 01 . | # ]| 9384.23 | + *
Wed 17 Oct 01 .# | . [| 9232.97 |+. *
Thu 18 Oct 01 # I . {| 9163.22 |-. *
Fri 19 Oct 01 . # . | 9204.11 |-. *
Mon 22 Oct 01 . | #. | 9377.03 + . *
Tue 23 Oct 01 . # . | 9340.08 |-. *
Wed 24 Oct 01 . #| . | 9345.62 |-. *
Thu 25 Oct 01 . | #. }| 9462.90 + . *
Fri 26 Oct 01 . | #. | 9545.17 |+. *
Mon 29 Oct 01 #. | . [| 9269.50 |-. *
Tue 30 Oct 01 # . I . {| 9121.98 | - *
Wed 31 Oct 01 . #I . | 9075.14 | - *
Thu 1 Nov 01 . | #. }| 9263.90 | - *
Fri 2 Nov 01 . | #. | 9323.54 | - *
========================================================================
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend":
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND ____________________________
Mon 29 Jan 01 . | . # | 2838.34 | . + *
Tue 30 Jan 01 . | .# | 2838.35 | .+ *
Wed 31 Jan 01 . | # | 2772.73 | .+ *
Thu 1 Feb 01 . | .# | 2782.79 | . + *
Fri 2 Feb 01 . # . | 2660.50 | .+ *
Mon 5 Feb 01 . |# . [| 2643.21 | + *
Tue 6 Feb 01 . | .# | 2664.49 | + *
Wed 7 Feb 01 . #I . {| 2607.82 |+. *
Thu 8 Feb 01 . I# . | 2562.06 |+. *
Fri 9 Feb 01 # I . | 2470.97 +~.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 12 Feb 01 . I #. | 2489.66 + . *
Tue 13 Feb 01 . #I . | 2427.72 |-. *
Wed 14 Feb 01 . I #. | 2491.40 + . *
Thu 15 Feb 01 . I . # | 2552.91 |+. *
Fri 16 Feb 01 # . I . | 2425.38 + . *
Tue 20 Feb 01 # . I . | 2318.35 |-. *
Wed 21 Feb 01 # . I . | 2268.94 |~-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Feb 01 #. I . | 2244.96 | .- *
Fri 23 Feb 01 # I . | 2262.51 | . - *
Mon 26 Feb 01 . I #. | 2308.50 | .- *
Tue 27 Feb 01 # . I . | 2207.82 | .- *
Wed 28 Feb 01 #. I . | 2151.83 | .- *
Thu 1 Mar 01 .# I . | 2183.37 | .- *
Fri 2 Mar 01 # . I . | 2117.63 | .- *
Mon 5 Mar 01 . & . | 2142.92 | . - *
Tue 6 Mar 01 . I .# | 2204.43 | - *
Wed 7 Mar 01 . & . | 2223.92 |-. *
Thu 8 Mar 01 # I . | 2168.73 |-. *
Fri 9 Mar 01 # . I . | 2052.78 |~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 12 Mar 01 # . I . | 1923.36 | .- *
Tue 13 Mar 01 .# I . | 2014.78 | . - *
Wed 14 Mar 01 # . I . | 1972.09 @| . - *
Thu 15 Mar 01 # . I . | 1940.71 @| . - *
Fri 16 Mar 01 # . I . | 1890.91 @| . *-
Mon 19 Mar 01 .# I . | 1951.18 | . - *
Tue 20 Mar 01 # . I . | 1857.44 @|~.~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 21 Mar 01 # . I . | 1830.23 @| . - *
Thu 22 Mar 01 # I . | 1897.70 | . - *
Fri 23 Mar 01 .# I . | 1928.68 | . - *
Mon 26 Mar 01 # I . | 1918.49 | . - *
Tue 27 Mar 01 . & . | 1972.26 | .- *
Wed 28 Mar 01 # . I . | 1854.13 | . - *
Thu 29 Mar 01 # . I . | 1820.57 | . - *
Fri 30 Mar 01 . #I . | 1840.26 | . - *
Mon 2 Apr 01 # . I . | 1782.97 | . - *
Tue 3 Apr 01 # . I . | 1673.00 @|~.~~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 4 Apr 01 # . I . | 1638.80 @| . - *
Thu 5 Apr 01 . I #. | 1785.00 | . - *
Fri 6 Apr 01 # . I . | 1720.36 @| . - *
Mon 9 Apr 01 .# I . | 1745.71 | . - *
Tue 10 Apr 01 . I # | 1852.03 | .- *
Wed 11 Apr 01 . I #. | 1898.95 |-. *
Thu 12 Apr 01 . I # | 1961.43 |-. *
Mon 16 Apr 01 # I . | 1909.57 + . *
Tue 17 Apr 01 . & . | 1923.22 |+. *
Wed 18 Apr 01 . | . # | 2079.44 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Apr 01 . | . # | 2182.14 | + *
Fri 20 Apr 01 . | #. | 2163.41 | + *
Mon 23 Apr 01 # | . | 2059.32 | + *
Tue 24 Apr 01 . #| . | 2016.61 |+. *
Wed 25 Apr 01 . | .# | 2059.80 |+. *
Thu 26 Apr 01 . # . | 2034.88 + . *
Fri 27 Apr 01 . | .# | 2075.68 + . *
Mon 30 Apr 01 . | . # }| 2116.24 | + *
Tue 1 May 01 . | . # | 2168.24 | . + *
Wed 2 May 01 . | . # | 2220.60 | . + *
Thu 3 May 01 . # . | 2146.20 | . + *
Fri 4 May 01 . | . # | 2191.53 | . + *
Mon 7 May 01 . | #. | 2173.57 | . + *
Tue 8 May 01 . | . # | 2198.77 | .+ *
Wed 9 May 01 . |# . | 2156.63 | + *
Thu 10 May 01 . | #. | 2128.86 | .+ *
Fri 11 May 01 . | #. | 2107.43 | + *
Mon 14 May 01 . |# . | 2081.92 | + *
Tue 15 May 01 . | # | 2085.58 |+. *
Wed 16 May 01 . | . # | 2166.44 | + *
Thu 17 May 01 . | . # | 2193.68 | .+ *
Fri 18 May 01 . | .# | 2198.88 | .+ *
Mon 21 May 01 . | . # | 2305.59 | . + *
Tue 22 May 01 . | .# | 2313.85 | . + *
Wed 23 May 01 . |# . | 2243.48 | . + *
Thu 24 May 01 . | . # | 2282.02 | . + *
Fri 25 May 01 . | # | 2251.03 | . + *
Tue 29 May 01 . # . | 2175.54 | + *
Wed 30 May 01 # I . {| 2084.50 |+. *
Thu 31 May 01 . I . # ]| 2110.49 | + *
Fri 1 Jun 01 . | . # }| 2149.44 | + *
Mon 4 Jun 01 . | .# | 2155.93 | + *
Tue 5 Jun 01 . | . # | 2233.66 | .+ *
Wed 6 Jun 01 . | # | 2217.73 | . + *
Thu 7 Jun 01 . | . # | 2264.00 | . + *
Fri 8 Jun 01 . # . | 2215.10 | .+ *
Mon 11 Jun 01 . #I . | 2170.78 | + *
Tue 12 Jun 01 . I# . {| 2169.95 |+. *
Wed 13 Jun 01 . #I . | 2121.66 + . *
Thu 14 Jun 01 # . I . | 2044.07 | - *
Fri 15 Jun 01 # I . | 2028.43 | - *
Mon 18 Jun 01 # . I . | 1988.63 | .- *
Tue 19 Jun 01 .# I . | 1992.66 | . - *
Wed 20 Jun 01 . #I . | 2031.24 | . - *
Thu 21 Jun 01 . I# . | 2058.76 | - *
Fri 22 Jun 01 . & . | 2034.84 | - *
Mon 25 Jun 01 . I #. | 2050.87 + . *
Tue 26 Jun 01 . I# . | 2064.62 + . *
Wed 27 Jun 01 . I # | 2074.74 |+. *
Thu 28 Jun 01 . I . # | 2125.46 | + *
Fri 29 Jun 01 . | . # | 2160.54 | .+ *
Mon 2 Jul 01 . I# . | 2148.72 | .+ *
Tue 3 Jul 01 . #I . | 2140.80 | + *
Thu 5 Jul 01 #. I . | 2080.11 |+. *
Fri 6 Jul 01 # . I . | 2004.16 |-. *
Mon 9 Jul 01 . & . | 2026.71 | - *
Tue 10 Jul 01 # . I . | 1962.79 | . - *
Wed 11 Jul 01 .# I . | 1972.04 | . - *
Thu 12 Jul 01 . I . # | 2075.74 | - *
Fri 13 Jul 01 . I #. | 2084.79 + . *
Mon 16 Jul 01 .# I . | 2029.12 |-. *
Tue 17 Jul 01 . I # | 2067.32 |+. *
Wed 18 Jul 01 .# I . | 2016.17 |+. *
Thu 19 Jul 01 . I # | 2046.59 + . *
Fri 20 Jul 01 . #I . | 2029.37 + . *
Mon 23 Jul 01 . #I . | 1988.56 + . *
Tue 24 Jul 01 #. I . | 1959.24 |-. *
Wed 25 Jul 01 . #I . | 1984.32 |-. *
Thu 26 Jul 01 . I # | 2022.96 |-. *
Fri 27 Jul 01 . I# . | 2029.07 |-. *
Mon 30 Jul 01 . & . | 2017.84 |-. *
Tue 31 Jul 01 . I #. | 2027.13 |+. *
Wed 1 Aug 01 . I .# | 2068.38 | + *
Thu 2 Aug 01 . | #. | 2087.38 |+. *
Fri 3 Aug 01 . & . | 2066.33 |+. *
Mon 6 Aug 01 . & . | 2034.26 |+. *
Tue 7 Aug 01 . & . | 2027.79 |+. *
Wed 8 Aug 01 # I . | 1966.36 |-. *
Thu 9 Aug 01 .# I . | 1963.32 |-. *
Fri 10 Aug 01 .# I . | 1956.47 | - *
Mon 13 Aug 01 . I # | 1982.25 |-. *
Tue 14 Aug 01 . #I . | 1964.53 |-. *
Wed 15 Aug 01 # I . | 1918.89 |-. *
Thu 16 Aug 01 .# I . | 1930.32 |-. *
Fri 17 Aug 01 #. I . | 1867.01 | - *
Mon 20 Aug 01 . & . | 1881.35 | - *
Tue 21 Aug 01 #. I . | 1831.30 |~.-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 22 Aug 01 . & . | 1860.01 | - *
Thu 23 Aug 01 .# I . | 1842.97 | - *
Fri 24 Aug 01 . I # | 1916.80 |-. *
Mon 27 Aug 01 . #I . | 1912.41 |-. *
Tue 28 Aug 01 #. I . | 1864.98 |-. *
Wed 29 Aug 01 #. I . | 1841.17 | - *
Thu 30 Aug 01 # . I . | 1791.68 | .- *
Fri 31 Aug 01 . #I . | 1805.43 | . - *
Tue 4 Sep 01 # . I . | 1770.78 | . - *
Wed 5 Sep 01 # . I . | 1759.01 | . - *
Fri 7 Sep 01 # . I . | 1687.70 | . - *
Mon 10 Sep 01 #. I . | 1695.38 | . - *
Mon 17 Sep 01 # . I . | 1579.55 @|*.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 18 Sep 01 # . I . | 1555.08 @| . - *
Wed 19 Sep 01 # . I . | 1527.80 @| . - *
Thu 20 Sep 01 # . I . | 1470.93 @| . - *
Fri 21 Sep 01 # . I . | 1423.19 @| . * -
Mon 24 Sep 01 . & . | 1499.40 @| . - *
Tue 25 Sep 01 #. I . | 1501.64 @| . - *
Wed 26 Sep 01 # . I . | 1464.04 @| . - *
Thu 27 Sep 01 # . I . | 1460.71 @| . - *
Fri 28 Sep 01 . & . | 1498.80 | . - *
Mon 1 Oct 01 # . I . | 1480.46 | . - *
Tue 2 Oct 01 # I . | 1492.33 | . - *
Wed 3 Oct 01 . I# . | 1580.81 | .- *
Thu 4 Oct 01 . I# . | 1597.31 | - *
Fri 5 Oct 01 . #I . | 1605.30 | - *
Mon 8 Oct 01 . & . | 1605.95 |-. *
Tue 9 Oct 01 #. I . | 1570.19 |-. *
Wed 10 Oct 01 . I #. | 1626.26 |-. *
Thu 11 Oct 01 . | .# | 1701.47 + . *
Fri 12 Oct 01 . |# . | 1703.40 + . *
Mon 15 Oct 01 . #| . | 1696.31 + . *
Tue 16 Oct 01 . | # | 1722.07 |+. *
Wed 17 Oct 01 # | . | 1646.34 + . *
Thu 18 Oct 01 . #I . | 1652.72 |-. *
Fri 19 Oct 01 . #I . | 1671.31 |-. *
Mon 22 Oct 01 . | #. | 1708.08 + . *
Tue 23 Oct 01 . # . | 1704.44 |-. *
Wed 24 Oct 01 . | #. | 1731.54 + . *
Thu 25 Oct 01 . | .# | 1775.47 |+. *
Fri 26 Oct 01 . |# . | 1768.96 |+. *
Mon 29 Oct 01 .# | . | 1699.52 |+. *
Tue 30 Oct 01 #. | . | 1667.41 + . *
Wed 31 Oct 01 . | #. | 1690.20 + . *
Thu 1 Nov 01 . | # | 1746.30 + . *
Fri 2 Nov 01 . #| . | 1745.73 |-. *
========================================================================
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:
{, } = "Timer's Trend" (4% exponential confirmed by 10% exponential) SELL ({) or
BUY (}) signal.
NEXT ISSUE - will appear in late November.
/Nick Chase