He first wanted to know if I recommended contrary investment strategies for everybody. Of course not, I replied.... I wanted most people to be part of the herd, so there would be bargains left for the few of us who are contrarians. If everybody was a "contrarian", by definition contrary investing would seek to exist, because no bargains could be found.
Then he was looking for a "philosophy of contrary investing" that would, in a few succinct words, express the strategy that successful investors should follow. I told him I didn't think there was any such thing.... that contrarian investing depends as much on one's personality as on knowledge, and that most people were not emotionally capable of bucking the conventional wisdom even if intellectually they agreed with the strategy.
But I did continue to sum up my idea of contrary investing as best I could. I told him that, in my experience, the best investments were stocks which represented solid value in the underlying companies, but were currently out of favor, and which had the potential to be discovered or rediscovered by the money managers. The second part is key, because the shares of many companies are rightfully depressed because a company is going nowhere or is likely to become defunct.
As an example, I offered up the story of the closed-end mutual funds invested in German stocks when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. At the time there was so much enthusiasm about the end of the cold war, the "peace dividend", and about the German economic renaissance that would occur with reunification, that the fund shares traded at premiums of 10% or more to their asset values.... and of course, new funds were created to fill the demand.
Three years later, the much-heralded economic renaissance had yet to occur; the former West Germany had considerably more difficulty absorbing the former East Germany than most people (contrarians excepted, of course) had anticipated, and the usual closed-end-fund discounts of 10% to 25% had returned.... on asset values which had also declined. Only the persistent weakness of the dollar had softened the blow for U.S. investors, as the loss in dollars was less than in marks.... and this turned out to be a bad example for our writer, because he had difficulty understanding how a declining dollar could protect the value of an investment valued in a strong foreign currency. (If he has trouble understanding this simple concept, I though to myself, how can he be a writer for a financial magazine?)
Then I threw another curve at him.... that, even for contrarian investors, there are times (such as now) when it might be best to do nothing. When the stock market as a whole is grossly overvalued (in relation to its historical norms), there aren't many bargains left, and there are enough people seeking them out that even the "bargains" are (historically) overpriced. The nature of a bear market is, not only do the overpriced and "good" stocks go down, but the bargains become even bigger bargains. It pays to wait until the bear recedes.... the best money is made by buying depressed stocks at the beginning of a bull market.
As we neared the end of the phone interview, the writer asked me if I had any suggestions for good contrarian stock purchases. At this point I got a little annoyed.... I felt he hadn't gotten the message. Look, I replied, it's typical of financial publications to always want to get recommendations for some stock to buy. The only area I currently see as possibly grossly out of favor is the precious-metals stocks.... but really, there is nothing wrong at the moment with just being in cash. This is the advantage of being a contrarian investor in individual stocks..... you have only yourself to satisfy, and if you want to be 100% in cash, you can do it. You have an advantage over the money managers, because their clients send them money to buy stocks, not sit on piles of cash, so they must be invested somewhere. Right now, cash looks like the best bet to me.... CASH! CASH! CASH!, I shreiked into the telephone.
Generally, I try to avoid these interviews, because I don't consider myself to be in the entertainment business, but somehow these people manage to find me anyway, and I hate to turn them down. (I persist in the vain hope that one of them will really understand what I'm saying.) This is in contrast to many letter writers who engage in shameless self-promotion; and even the best advisors (measured by the quality of the advice they give) are not publicity-shy, because they make their living from their musings, and for them media exposure is free advertising. Contrast this with The Contrarian's View, which is the ongoing record of what I do with my money. What you do with your money is your business; I would not be so presumptuous to tell you what's best for you.
Oh, by the way, about that "Trumpet Winsock". If you know how to make the virtual packet driver WINPKT.COM work with the packet driver for the DEC EtherWORKS 3 Turbo Ethernet Controller card, would you please E-mail me the answer at nick15@eve.assumption.edu? Then perhaps the next inquisitive reporter will find me in a better mood.
This table came about from my observation that, since computerized arbitrage trading became a major factor in the stock market, large-cap stocks have traded in a range such that their yield is between one-half and three-fourths that of six-month Treasury bills, and that they are "fairly priced" when their yield is about two-thirds that of the six-month bills. There are exceptions, of course; the relationship breaks down at extremes of interest rates, when stocks are restrained by fundamental measures of value.... the Dow did not go over 5000 in October 1993, for example, when T-bill rates were 3.6%.... but now interest rates have risen to the point where stocks are "back in range" and the table again applies (I think).
T-bills % Min Ave Max 4% 3540 3980 5311 4.25 3330 3750 5000 4.5 3150 3540 4720 4.75 2980 3555 4470 5% 2835 3185 4250 5.25 2700 3185 4045 5.5 2575 2895 3865 5.75 2465 2770 3695 6% 2360 2655 3540 6.25 2265 2550 3400 6.5 2180 2450 3270 6.75 2100 2360 3150 7% 2025 2275 3035 7.25 1955 2200 2930 7.5 1890 2125 2835 7.75 1825 2055 2740 8% 1770 1990 2655 8.25 1715 1930 2575 8.5 1665 1875 2500 8.75 1620 1820 2430 9% 1575 1770 2360With six-month bills currently about 6.5%, "fair value" for the Dow is under 2500; and the Dow is currently trading about 16% above the maximum of the range in the table. By way of comparison, in 1987, as interest rates rose, the Dow became similarly overpriced before the Crash. And when stocks did crash, they plunged right through the fair-value level, and touched the lower end of the (then-applicable) table's trading range before resting and embarking on a new bull market.
But this is not 1987. Once you get away from the computer-traded stocks, you find that we have been in a bear market since January, and the 30% decline shown by utility and transportation issues, and many of the small-cap issues on the over-the-counter market, is very typical bear-market behavior in a period of rising interest rates. So of course, the question is, what gives with the blue-chip issues?
I've given this question some thought, and I think I have the answer. In 1987, the Crash was aggravated by "portfolio insurance" run amok, where plunging futures on stocks forced computers to sell stocks, which caused further plunging in futures.... in a self-reinforcing cycle. After the Crash, the exchanges imposed the "collars" on prices; when the Dow drops more than 50 points, the computers are "unplugged", the pressure caused by the computerized arbitrage abates, and stocks.... usually.... right themselves.
Ostensibly the collars were designed to keep "the public" from panicking and to maintain orderly markets. In reality, portfolio insurance and other computer games never disappeared.... they've actually returned stronger than ever.... and the real effect of the collars is to reduce the risk of computerized arbitrage trading, because the computers are turned off before they're allowed to shoot themselves in their collective feet and create a meltdown.
As a result, the quants and rocket scientists who write the computer programs that do this stuff have designed trading strategies that are profitable on thinner margins than before (because, in theory, a meltdown cannot occur), so the blue-chip stocks, those in the popular averages, can continue to be "safely" held while the computers arbitrage profits from them, at prices far above "fair" value as reflected by the yield on competing investments.
The key question is, is there a point where the quants have outsmarted themselves and the process breaks down? I think there is.... when too much money drains away from stocks. Recall that the current bear market (for most stocks) has been taking place while money has, on balance, continued to pour into stock mutual funds (which means that some very clever people have been selling stocks to the latecomers). Only in the past month or two have we seen net redemptions.... and the stock market has been getting "thinner", with the computer games assuming increasing importance. Also recall that at least half of the money in mutual funds was sent in above DJIA 3600, and that, maybe, some of those mutual-fund owners are getting anxious that the fantastic gains of the 1980s have yet to materialize in the 1990s.
As the bear grinds on, and competing investments look more attractive in relation to the puny yields and overall returns of stocks, I expect redemptions to increase, then turn torrential. Finally, the prices of blue-chip stocks will turn lower as money managers are forced to sell to meet redemptions, and the computers will be in trouble.... because share prices will not snap back when the machines are unplugged. (We've already had a few of these days in the current bear market, where the Dow is off 80 or 90 points for the day in spite of the collars.... and this is a warning sign.)
In 1987, the Dow dropped 1000 points from its August high to the October low, with more than 600 million shares traded on the busiest days. In the next crash, the Dow may well drop 1000 points with no shares traded, because the collars will force the markets closed. At least in 1987, the stock market was liquid and investors could bail out, even if it was at the bottom. If the markets are closed, sell orders from frightened novices will simply pile up with no chance for them to be filled, and the resulting imbalance, when the markets do finally reopen, will result in prices much lower than would otherwise occur. (This is what happened in Hong Kong in 1987.)
The current bear market, at its current level, rates as "moderate" (blue chips excepted) in relation to most of the postwar bear markets, so there is expectation in some quarters that we are at or near its end.... especially since years ending in "5" are consistently bullish, and the last two years of the terms of most presidents are also consistently bullish. I can't blame you if you feel the urge to buy into these bullish arguments.... history is on your side.... but I wll feel much more comfortable that the current bear market is over when the blue chips join the rest of the market at more realistic levels. If you must buy something, at least shop around among the stocks that are marked down 30% or more; don't buy the blue chips.
For the short term, I think a "bounce" for the first three weeks in January is possible, and if "Timer's Trend" gives a buy signal, I expect to play it. (Cash can be sooooo boring.) Beyond that, I think hopes have been raised by the shifting political picture, with a Republican incoming Congress. I think the reality will be gridlock as usual; I don't expect any reduction of marginal or capital-gains tax rates, which would give stocks a lift. It's more likely that share prices will begin discounting the 1996 recession.... even in the blue chips. The conventional wisdom is that Republicans can grow the economy better. That may be true over the very long term.... but the last time I checked, cutting government spending and balancing the budget was deflationary policy.... not good for either the economy or stocks, short-term.
A word about gold stocks: It saddens me to say that the "window of opportunity" is closing on them. At current depressed levels they are still a good buy, and inflation.... and probably the price of gold.... will perk up in 1995. But the pre-emptive interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve mean that 1970s-style inflation is not going to occur soon, and the coming bounce in precious-metals shares should be regarded as a trading opportunity. Of course, some precious-metals shares should always be held as insurance, and increasing commodity demand for both gold and silver should mean steadily-climbing prices and a reasonable return on your mining-stock holdings (from current levels). But we're simply not going to see $1200 gold, and a quintupling of the stocks, within the next two or three years (barring a financial accident). That will have to wait until Alan Greenspan leaves the Federal Reserve and is replaced by an inflationist, or until the next millenium when the threat of bankruptcy of the U.S. Government becomes more immediate.
A. "Hedger's Delight" -real portfolio, includes commissions:
Current
Shrs Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
100 Amax Gold wt$21/8Jan96 21Feb92 {AUws/ase} 181.10 18.75
100 Amax Gold wt$21/8Jan96 5May93 84.85 18.75
100 Atlas wt$15.625/perpetual 15Jun89 {AZws/ase} 490.00 87.50
100 Atlas wt$15.625/perpetual 31Dec91 263.60 87.50
100 Atlas wt$15.625/perpetual 10Feb93 167.35 87.50
125 Aurora Electronics SHORT 30Nov92 1331.48 -640.63
25 Aurora Electronics 16Mar93 {AUR/ase} 312.50 128.13
200 Campbell Resources 15Sep88 {CCH/nyse} 220.00 112.50
300 Campbell Resources 14Dec88 206.25 168.75
125 Campbell Resources 26Dec90 47.50 70.31
1 Citicorp call$20/21Jan95 14Sep94 -2425.00 -2162.50
1 Citicorp put$35/21Jan95 22Sep94 {CCIMG/cboe} 37.50 12.50
14 Coherent Communications SHORT 3Aug94 70.00 -241.50
100 Glamis Gold .12 1Jun89 {GLG/nyse} 109.00 812.50
75 Hasbro .28 SHORT 30Nov92 2582.70 -2165.63
1 Homestake LEAPcall$25/20Jan96 19Sep94 {LHMAE/cboe} 263.05 100.00
100 Magma Copper B SHORT 4Jan93 1294.75 -1625.00
100 Magma Copper wt$8.50/30Nov95 4Jan93 {MCUws/nyse} 875.00 825.00
3 MajMktIdx LEAP put$35/15Dec95 29Jul93 {LTBXG/ase} 735.46 337.50
2 MajMktIdx LEAP put$40/21Dec96 14Oct94 {LTBXH/ase} 486.84 425.00
100 Pegasus Gold .10 25Apr91 {PGU/ase} 1122.33 1087.50
1 Placer Dome LEAPcall$30/20Ja96 26Oct94 {LPDAF/cboe} 235.05 112.50
2 S&P500 LEAP put$40/15Dec95 17Aug93 {LSXXH/cboe} 342.30 125.00
2 S&P500 LEAP put$45/21Dec96 17Oct94 {LSZXI/cboe} 436.10 387.50
40 Safeguard Scientifics SHORT 6Dec85 181.78 -680.00
100 Sunshine Mining 15Dec88 {SSC/nyse} 371.25 175.00
200 Union Carbide .75 SHORT 19Aug94 6391.30 -5975.00
CASH 3320.24 3320.24
------- ------- --------
11852.01 7882.27 -4990.32
SUMMARY - "Hedger's Delight":
Original cost: $10,455.77
Present value: $ 6,861.69
Increase: $-3,594.08 [-34.37%]
Yield: $ -81.00 [-0.77%]
The performance of this portfolio from January 1987 to the present
(adjusted for the dilutive effect of added cash) is - 32.65%, for a
compound annual rate of return of -4.82%.
COMMENT on "Hedger's Delight":There is no change from last month.
B. "Present and Future Income" - real portfolio, includes commissions:
Current
Shrs Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
100 Bank of NY wt$62/14Nov98 2Oct90 {BKNYW/otc} 222.35 1150.00
128 Citizens Utilities 'A' .75 8Apr91 {CZNA/nyse} 957.21 1648.00
33 Continental Mortgage EqTr .60 23Dec93 {CMETS/otc} 412.50 486.75
3.2 Duke Realty Investments 1.80 14Dec87 {DRE/nyse} 66.00 84.80
3.3 Duke Realty Investments 1.80 15Dec87 68.75 87.45
7.5 Duke Realty Investments 1.80 14Nov88 193.60 198.75
300 Hanson wtB,300pence/30Sep97 15Jan92 {HANwsB/ase} 126.10 93.75
100 Manville wt$9.40/5Jun96 26Oct90 {MVLws/nyse} 71.10 150.00
100 Northeast Util wt$24/5Jun97 15Nov93 {NUWTW/otc} 222.35 100.00
8 Northeast Util wt$24/5Jun97 23Dec93 18.00 8.00
13 Southwestern Property Trst .88 31Dec93 {SWP/nyse} 164.13 157.63
CASH 8143.29 8143.29
------- ------- --------
10665.38 12308.42
SUMMARY - "Present and Future Income":
Original cost: $ 9,548.98
Present value: $12,308.42
Increase: $ 2,759.44 [28.90%]
Yield: $ 144.19 [1.51%]
The performance of this portfolio from January 1987 to the present
(adjusted for the dilutive effect of added cash) is +44.24%, for a
compound annual rate of return of 4.70%.
COMMENT on "Present and Future Income": There is no change from November.
C. "Crapshooter's Folly" - real portfolio, includes commissions:
Current
Shrs Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
100 Allou Health & Beauty SHORT 13Jan94 1047.61 -775.00
100 Allou Health & Beauty 18Mar93 {ALU/ase} 865.98 775.00
100 Baker-Hughes wt$36.75/31Mar95 2Mar92 {BHICW/otc} 222.35 1.56
100 Brock Exploration 25Feb92 {BKE/pse} 153.60 350.00
100 Chemex Pharmaceut wt$6/31Mar94 4Dec89 {CHMXL/otc} 82.50 3.13
2 Chyron 21Dec89 {CHY/nyse} 4.12 1.00
101 Chyron wt$.20/31Jan96 21Jan92 {CHYws/mse} 101.00 25.25
200 Gulf Canada Resources 1Dec92 {GOU/ase} 579.85 625.00
150 Medical Resource 17Jan92 {MRA/ase} 222.35 187.50
200 National Enterprises 27Nov89 {NEI/nyse} 110.00 9.38
100 Nabors Industries 30Jul93 {NBR/ase} 577.50 637.50
100 Pride Petroleum Services 30Jan92 {PRDE/otc} 469.85 518.75
39 Scios-Nova wt$26.75/30Jun98 19Dec89 {SCIOZ/otc} 165.00 73.13
100 Smith Intern'l wt$8.28/28Feb95 27Dec91 {SIICW/otc} 304.85 400.00
100 Tide West Oil wt$3/21Jun96 17Jan92 {TIDEW/otc} 71.10 3.13
100 Unit Corp. wt$4.375/31Aug96 13Nov89 {UNTEW/otc} 68.75 37.50
100 Vet Centers Am wt$7.20/10Oct96 10Mar92 {VCAIW/otc} 126.10 143.75
100 Wendt-Bristol Hlth wtA/1May95 18May92 {WMDws/ase} 139.85 62.50
CASH 12239.76 12239.76
------- ------- --------
1047.61 16504.51 15318.02
SUMMARY - "Crapshooter's Folly":
Original cost: $10,817.13
Present value: $16,366.43
Increase: $ 5,549.30 [51.30%]
Yield: $ .00 [0.00%]
The performance of this portfolio from January 1987 to the present
(adjusted for the dilutive effect of added cash) is +66.71%, for a
compound annual rate of return of 6.62%.
COMMENT on "Crapshooter's Folly": There is no change since the last issue.
D. "Discards" - stocks even I have given up on for one reason or another (bankrupt company, too much paperwork, held too long with no profit, corrupt management, or change in personal objectives). This model portfolio includes commissions when I have actually sold my holdings, but does not include commissions when I still own the stock that was transferred to here from one of the other portfolios. (In the latter situation, I would probably have to PAY the broker to take the stuff off my hands.) I make no claims for the performance of this portfolio; I'm as curious as you are to see how it turns out.
Current
Shrs Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
1000 Altex Industries 23Dec93 {otc} 93.75 93.75
200 Avitar 23Dec93 12.00 12.00
500 Breakwater Resources 26Jun91 {otc} 250.00 46.88
125 Horizon Resources 1Dec93 {otc} 7.81 7.81
CASH 172.36 172.36
------- ------- --------
535.92 332.80
SUMMARY - "Discards":
Original cost: $ 1,266.28
Present value: $ 332.80
Increase: $ -933.48 [-73.72%]
COMMENT on "Discards": There is no change from the last issue.
E. Commerce/INVEST/Bull&Bear IRAs - real portfolio, includes commissions:
Current
Shares Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
-------- ------------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
32 Berkshire Gas 1.08 11Apr88 {BGAS/otc} 560.00 480.00
35.87 Bull&Bear Gold Investors 30Oct89 {BBGIX/otc} 577.64 553.12
5 CIGNA 10Jul2010cvbd 82.00 12Oct90 {CI.CC/nyse} 3915.00 5037.50
203 New Germany Fund .50 20Dec91 {GF/nyse} 1977.50 2309.13
40 New Germany Fund .50 8Jun94 476.00 455.00
200 People's Bank of CT .24 15Nov89 {PBCT/otc} 1690.21 2400.00
100 Tuscon Electric Pwr 1.60j 4Oct89 {TEP/nyse} 2437.21 300.00
100 Unicom Corporation 1.60 11Apr88 {CWE/nyse} 2728.83 2400.00
Money market & accrued interest 3323.14 3366.97
--------- --------
$ 17729.36 17301.71
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $17,301.71
Increase: $ 8,975.52 [107.80%]
Current yield: $ 929.73 [5.27%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors) from
January 1, 1987 to the present is +57.76%, for a compound annual rate of
return of 5.89%.
COMMENT on IRAs: Though my IRA is now comfortably ensconced at Fidelity, I have yet to get my PC connection working so I can access it. (Maybe next week!) Next year, look for a substantial change.... my wife is on medical leave from her job (a fascinating story, one I hope I can relate in a future issue), part of which is unpaid, and we will be living one one salary for part of next year. Therefore I have discontinued the "supplemental" part of my retirement plan for next year, and I will be rolling it over into my IRA (which is a already a rollover IRA), primarily because TIAA/CREF threatens to impose switching limits and I feel I had better take direct control of the funds while I have the opportunity. I'm not sure how I'll treat this in calculating perofmance, since the IRA will almost quadruple with the influx of cash.... I may treat it as a "discontinuity".
F. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought 27Jan92 stock @ 57.82 MM @ 13.34 10Mar92 MM @ 13.40 stock @ 56.95 13Mar92 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41 29Apr92 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19 19Jun92 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55 29Jun92 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74 24Jul92 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61 29Oct92 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61 23Dec92 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78Values on 23Dec94: stock, 69.69; MM, 14.78
G. Current unfilled portfolio good-til-cancelled orders:
GTC BUY - 100 Amax Gold @ 5-1/2, 100 Horsham @ 9-1/8, 200 Manville 1996
warrants ($9.40 to 5Jun96) @ 1/2.
COMMENT on "Timer's Trend": Although we're still on a sell signal, the more sensitive 10% exponential no longer says sell.... so watch the "computer warmline" closely, there may be an opportunity to ride a stab at the old highs (for the popular averages, not the broad market) and pick off a gain of a few percent.
================================ TIMER'S TREND ===============================
Mon 2 May 94 . I# . | 3701.02 |-. *
Tue 3 May 94 . #I . | 3714.41 |.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 4 May 94 .# I . | 3697.75 |-. *
Thu 5 May 94 .# I . | 3695.97 |-. *
Fri 6 May 94 # . I . | 3669.50 | - *
Mon 9 May 94 # . I . | 3629.04 | . - *
Tue 10 May 94 .# I . | 3656.41 | . - *
Wed 11 May 94 # . I . | 3629.04 | . -*
Thu 12 May 94 .# I . | 3652.84 | . - *
Fri 13 May 94 # I . | 3659.68 | . - *
Mon 16 May 94 #. I . | 3671.50 | . - *
Tue 17 May 94 . #I . | 3720.61 | . - *
Wed 18 May 94 . I #. | 3732.89 | - *
Thu 19 May 94 . | #. | 3758.98 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 20 May 94 . #| . | 3766.35 |-. *
Mon 23 May 94 .# I . | 3742.41 + . *
Tue 24 May 94 . |# . | 3745.17 + . *
Wed 25 May 94 . #| . | 3755.30 |-. *
Thu 26 May 94 . |# . | 3753.46 |-. *
Fri 27 May 94 . |# . | 3757.14 + . *
Tue 31 May 94 . #| . | 3758.37 + . *
Wed 1 Jun 94 . |# . | 3760.83 + . *
Thu 2 Jun 94 . |# . | 3758.99 + . *
Fri 3 Jun 94 . |# . | 3772.22 + . *
Mon 6 Jun 94 . |# . }| 3768.52 + . *
Tue 7 Jun 94 . #| . | 3755.91 + . *
Wed 8 Jun 94 . #| . [| 3749.45 + . *
Thu 9 Jun 94 .# | . | 3753.14 |-. *
Fri 10 Jun 94 . |# . ]| 3773.45 |-. *
Mon 13 Jun 94 . |# . | 3783.12 |-. *
Tue 14 Jun 93 . | # | 3814.83 +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 15 Jun 94 . # . | 3790.41 + . *
Thu 16 Jun 94 . |# . | 3811.34 |+. *
Fri 17 Jun 94 .# | . [| 3776.78 + . *
Mon 20 Jun 94 # . I . {| 3741.90 |-. *
Tue 21 Jun 94 # . I . | 3707.97 |~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 22 Jun 94 . #I . | 3724.77 | .- *
Thu 23 Jun 94 # . I . | 3699.09 | . - *
Fri 24 Jun 94 # . I . | 3636.94 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 27 Jun 94 # I . | 3685.50 | . - *
Tue 28 Jun 94 # . I . | 3669.64 | . - *
Wed 29 Jun 94 # I . | 3667.05 | . - *
Thu 30 Jun 94 # . I . | 3624.96 | . -*
Fri 1 Jul 94 .# I . | 3646.65 | . - *
Tue 5 Jul 94 .# I . | 3652.48 | . - *
Wed 6 Jul 94 .# I . | 3674.50 | .- *
Thu 7 Jul 94 . & . | 3688.42 | .- *
Fri 8 Jul 94 . #I . | 3709.14 | - *
Mon 11 Jul 94 # I . | 3702.99 | - *
Tue 12 Jul 94 .# I . | 3702.66 | - *
Wed 13 Jul 94 . & . | 3704.28 | - *
Thu 14 Jul 94 . | # | 3739.25 |-. *
Fri 15 Jul 94 . |# . | 3753.81 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 18 Jul 94 . | #. | 3755.43 + . *
Tue 19 Jul 94 . # . | 3748.31 |+. *
Wed 20 Jul 94 # I . | 3727.27 + . *
Thu 21 Jul 94 . #I . | 3732.45 |-. *
Fri 22 Jul 94 . #I . | 3735.04 |-. *
Mon 25 Jul 94 . & . | 3741.84 |-. *
Tue 26 Jul 94 .# I . | 3735.68 | - *
Wed 27 Jul 94 # I . | 3720.47 | - *
Thu 28 Jul 94 . #I . | 3730.83 | - *
Fri 29 Jul 94 . | # | 3764.50 |-. *
Mon 1 Aug 94 . | .# }| 3798.17 +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 2 Aug 94 . | # | 3796.22 |+. *
Wed 3 Aug 94 . | # | 3792.66 | + *
Thu 4 Aug 94 . # . | 3765.79 | + *
Fri 5 Aug 94 .# | . [| 3747.02 |+. *
Mon 8 Aug 94 . # . ]| 3753.81 + . *
Tue 9 Aug 94 . #| . [| 3755.76 + . *
Wed 10 Aug 94 . |# . ]| 3766.76 |-. *
Thu 11 Aug 94 # I . {| 3750.90 |-. *
Fri 12 Aug 94 . |# . | 3768.71 |-. *
Mon 15 Aug 94 . # . | 3760.29 |-. *
Tue 16 Aug 94 . | # }| 3784.57 + . *
Wed 17 Aug 94 . | # | 3776.48 + . *
Thu 18 Aug 94 . # . | 3755.43 |+. *
Fri 19 Aug 94 . |# . | 3755.11 |+. *
Mon 22 Aug 94 . # . [| 3751.22 |+. *
Tue 23 Aug 94 . | # ]| 3775.83 |+. *
Wed 24 Aug 94 . | # | 3846.73 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 25 Aug 94 . | #. | 3829.89 |+. *
Fri 26 Aug 94 . | . # | 3881.05 | + *
Mon 29 Aug 94 . | .# | 3898.85 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 30 Aug 94 . | . # | 3917.30 | .+ *
Wed 31 Aug 94 . | .# | 3913.42 | . + *
Thu 1 Sep 94 . #| . | 3901.44 | .+ *
Fri 2 Sep 94 . |# . | 3885.58 | + *
Tue 6 Sep 94 . |# . | 3898.70 | + *
Wed 7 Sep 94 . |# . | 3886.25 |+. *
Thu 8 Sep 94 . | .# | 3908.46 |+. *
Fri 9 Sep 94 #. I . | 3874.81 + . *
Mon 12 Sep 94 # I . | 3860.34 |-. *
Tue 13 Sep 94 . #I . | 3879.86 |-. *
Wed 14 Sep 94 .# I . | 3895.33 | - *
Thu 15 Sep 94 . | .# | 3953.88 |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 16 Sep 94 # I . | 3933.35 |-. *
Mon 19 Sep 94 . & . | 3936.72 |-. *
Tue 20 Sep 94 # . I . {| 3869.09 | - *
Wed 21 Sep 94 # . I . | 3851.60 |~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Sep 94 #. I . | 3837.13 |~.~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 23 Sep 94 #. I . | 3831.75 | . - *
Mon 26 Sep 94 #. I . | 3849.24 | . - *
Tue 27 Sep 94 .# I . | 3863.04 | . - *
Wed 28 Sep 94 . & . | 3878.18 | .- *
Thu 29 Sep 94 # I . | 3854.63 | .- *
Fri 30 Sep 94 . & . | 3843.19 | - *
Mon 3 Oct 94 .# I . | 3846.89 | - *
Tue 4 Oct 94 # . I . | 3801.13 |*.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 5 Oct 94 # . I . | 3787.34 |~.~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 6 Oct 94 #. I . | 3775.56 | . - *
Fri 7 Oct 94 .# I . | 3797.43 | . - *
Mon 10 Oct 94 . & . | 3821.32 | . - *
Tue 11 Oct 94 . I #. | 3876.83 | .- *
Wed 12 Oct 94 . #I . | 3875.15 |-. *
Thu 13 Oct 94 . I #. | 3889.95 + . *
Fri 14 Oct 94 . & . | 3910.47 +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 17 Oct 94 . & . | 3923.93 + . *
Tue 18 Oct 94 # I . | 3917.54 |-. *
Wed 19 Oct 94 . I# . | 3936.04 + . *
Thu 20 Oct 94 #. I . | 3911.15 | - *
Fri 21 Oct 94 # . I . | 3891.30 | .- *
Mon 24 Oct 94 # . I . | 3855.30 | . - *
Tue 25 Oct 94 # . I . | 3850.59 | . - *
Wed 26 Oct 94 #. I . | 3848.23 | . - *
Thu 27 Oct 94 . #I . | 3875.15 | . - *
Fri 28 Oct 94 . I # | 3930.66 | .- *
Mon 31 Oct 94 . #I . | 3908.12 | - *
Tue 1 Nov 94 # . I . | 3863.37 | - *
Wed 2 Nov 94 # I . | 3837.13 | - *
Thu 3 Nov 94 .# I . | 3845.88 | - *
Fri 4 Nov 94 # . I . | 3807.52 |~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 7 Nov 94 # . I . | 3808.87 | . - *
Tue 8 Nov 94 # I . | 3830.74 | . - *
Wed 9 Nov 94 #. I . | 3831.75 | . - *
Thu 10 Nov 94 # . I . | 3821.99 | . - *
Fri 11 Nov 94 # . I . | 3801.47 | . - *
Mon 14 Nov 94 .# I . | 3829.73 | . - *
Tue 15 Nov 94 # I . | 3826.36 | . - *
Wed 16 Nov 94 #. I . | 3845.20 | . - *
Thu 17 Nov 94 # . I . | 3828.05 | . - *
Fri 18 Nov 94 # . I . | 3815.26 | . - *
Mon 21 Nov 94 # . I . | 3769.51 |*.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 22 Nov 94 # . I . | 3677.99 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 23 Nov 94 # . I . | 3674.63 @| . -*
Fri 25 Nov 94 .# I . | 3708.27 @| . - *
Mon 28 Nov 94 #. I . | 3739.56 | . - *
Tue 29 Nov 94 # I . | 3738.55 | . - *
Wed 30 Nov 94 # I . | 3739.23 | . - *
Thu 1 Dec 94 # . I . | 3700.87 | . - *
Fri 2 Dec 94 # I . | 3745.62 | . - *
Mon 5 Dec 94 #. I . | 3741.92 | . - *
Tue 6 Dec 94 # . I . | 3745.95 | . - *
Wed 7 Dec 94 # . I . | 3735.52 | . - *
Thu 8 Dec 94 # . I . | 3685.73 @| . - *
Fri 9 Dec 94 # . I . | 3691.11 @| . - *
Mon 12 Dec 94 #. I . | 3718.37 @| . - *
Tue 13 Dec 94 #. I . | 3715.34 @| . - *
Wed 14 Dec 94 . #I . | 3756.29 | . - *
Thu 15 Dec 94 # I . | 3765.47 | . - *
Fri 16 Dec 94 . #I . | 3807.19 |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 19 Dec 94 #. I . | 3790.70 | .- *
Tue 20 Dec 94 # I . | 3767.15 | .- *
Wed 21 Dec 94 . #| . | 3801.80 | .- *
Thu 22 Dec 94 #. | . | 3814.92 | .- *
Fri 23 Dec 94 .# | . | 3833.43 | .- *
===============================================================================
{, } = "Timer's Trend" (4% and 10% exponential) SELL ({) or BUY (}) signalNEXT ISSUE - will appear about January 26. /Nick Chase
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