The Contrarian's View, Vol. IX, #4,
November 21, 1994

FACING THE DRAWDOWN

Lately I've been seeing articles on the great savings boom that's just ahead, as the baby-boomers start setting aside something for retirement. Now I have never been one to underestimate the great importance of demographic trends.... indeed, there is a strong demographic bias toward a "perennial" bull market in stocks until about the year 2005. But this does not justify, in my opinion, loading up on stocks at what are historically high prices in relation to underlying values, any more than this was the right thing to do in 1968.

Do you get the feeling that the stock-mutual-fund mania has been progressing uncorrected for so long that reasons are being invented to explain why it will go on forever? I do.... but before we buy into the demographic arguments for loading up on stocks, perhaps we should look ahead at what happens when the baby-boomers actually retire.

First and most important, the baby-boomers are being followed by the "baby-busters". (I see this now at the college where I work; it's been very hard to maintain class size without lowering academic standards. This year and next are the "low points"; enrollments should begin rising again in 1996.) The baby-busters will be supporting the retirement of the baby-boomers, and there will be fewer of them to do so.

For example, there will be only three workers paying into the Social Security system for each retiree, and if the benefits schedules are not changed, Social Security payroll taxes will have to be 20% or more of wages (employer's and employee's combined) to cover the cost.

Second, the Federal government, with its pernicious budget deficits, is competing with the stock market and other investment areas for the boomers' retirement funds. Currently Social Security taxes are providing a "surplus" of about $60 billion, to be set aside in the "trust funds" for future retirement benefits, and the system is supposed to be solvent for the next 40 years. Only problem: the "trust funds" are actually special government bonds.... that is, I.O.U.s.... which the Social Security system must "cash in" in the next century to meet its commitments. But the government has already borrowed the trillion-plus dollar Social Security surplus, plus another $5 trillion it doesn't have, and spent it.

Third, as the "baby-busters" enter their squirreling-away-for-retirement years, there will be fewer of them; and correspondingly, a reduced demand (relative to the baby-boomers) for investment products (like mutual funds).

OK, so let's look ahead to about the year 2010:

The baby-boomers are now starting to retire in goodly numbers....many of them taking early retirement because their investments have been kind to them. The Social Security "surplus" disappeared about five years ago.... now the system is running a $60 billion per year deficit.... and the government has to make good on its I.O.U.s. It can do this by either borrowing the money, or by printing it.

Borrowing would be the logical choice, except that the national debt is now about 95% of gross domestic product, thanks to past profligacy, and lenders.... a significant proportion of which are foreigners.... are unwilling to extend further credit except at exorbitant rates, because Uncle Sam is now a bad credit risk. (Yes, debt exceeded GDP to pay for the second world war, but this isn't World War II; in peacetime, once debt exceeds about 80% of GDP, a country is in trouble.) Real interest rates thus have climbed from the 5% that prevailed in the mid-1990s, to about 11%.

The baby-boomers are not just retiring on their interest and dividend income; they're also drawing on principal, as required by law for IRAs, 401(k) and 403(b) plans, and annuities. To the extent these vehicles are invested in stocks, stocks are being sold to fund the plans. And the question is, sold to whom? The baby-busters, fewer in number than the boomers?

The baby-busters themselves are not into stocks at the moment; they're "investing" in their children, just as the parents of the baby-boomers did in the 1970s; college educations, weddings, setting up houskeeping for the kids, etc.

In sum, the situation is:
Retirees are liquidators of assets and consumers, but are not producers in the economy.
The baby-busters are consumers and are producing, but labor is scarce.

This sounds to me like a recipe for inflation (due to high demand for consumer goods and a scarcity of producers), though in the context of a reasonably healthy economy, and depressed prices for securities, due to ongoing liquidation and lack of interest in them. Sort of like a rerun of the 1970s. (All of this presumes the government hasn't lost control and gone bankrupt around the turn of the millennium.... a real possibility, as I outlined in the Debt Overhang booklet.)

Much advice is given by many people about investing in stocks. The advice that has always made the most sense to me is: Don't overpay for the merchandise. When share prices trade at exorbitant levels, sometimes for years on end as they did in the late 1960s or as they have for the past three years, they can subsequently stagnate for a decade, or plummet in a "granddaddy" bear market like that of 1973-74. You can be sure they will return to their historical-value norms.... and will, from time to time, be real bargains, just as they were in 1933, 1974 and 1982.

QUOTE FOR THE MONTH

Washington is a city of Southern efficiency and Northern charm. - John F. Kennedy

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

What gives? I have been expecting stocks to take a nosedive at anytime, but so far I've just been whistling into the wind. The Federal Reserve keeps ratcheting up short-term interest rates.... a similar action led to the 1987 Crash.... but stocks (as measured by the popular averages) don't seem to be paying any attention.

As I have mentioned previously, I think computer games are keeping blue-chip stocks afloat.... but just what those computer games are, I still haven't been able to figure out. At any rate, the market in interest-rate futures is currently projecting that short-term rates will hit 8% in 1996. Think stocks will survive that onslaught?.... I don't.

We are about to enter the "safe period" between Thanksgiving and the first of the new year, when stocks rarely tumble, and are likely to stage a year-end rally.... the so-called "Santa Claus" rally. Should you play it? In my opinion, not unless "Timer's Trend", which remains solidly bearish, gives a buy signal.... simply because market risk is still extraordinarily high, and because we are in a bear market for just about all stocks except the blue chips. And even if we get a playable rally, I wouldn't try to skim off more than a few percent from it.

In surveying advisory opinion, I find a preponderance of bearishness (especially among those writers who have good track records). According to "contrarian" theory, we should then expect a roaring bull-market surge in stocks. Sadly, it doesn't work that way.... most advisors are on the right side of the market trend, except at the turning points; so now that the majority of advisors appear to be bearish, it merely confirms what we already know: We're in a bear market, and have been so since January.

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

The combined performance of the portfolios (excluding "Discards" and TIAA/CREF) from January 1987 to the present, adjusted for the dilutive effect of added cash, is +35.50%, for a compound annual rate of return of 3.92%. For comparison purposes, from January 1, 1987 to November 18, 1994 (7.882 years), the CREF stock unit value (whose performance closely parallels the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested) has risen 136.97%, for a compound annual rate of return of 11.57%. WARNING: I am a rotten stockpicker. Prices shown are as of November 18.

A. "Hedger's Delight" -real portfolio, includes commissions:

                                                                         Current
    Shrs        Description             Bought  Sold On Sold At Cost Is   Value
    ---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- -------  -------
    100  Amax Gold wt$21/8Jan96         21Feb92   {AUws/ase}     181.10    37.50
    100  Amax Gold wt$21/8Jan96          5May93                   84.85    37.50
    100  Atlas wt$15.625/perpetual      15Jun89   {AZws/ase}     490.00   125.00
    100  Atlas wt$15.625/perpetual      31Dec91                  263.60   125.00
    100  Atlas wt$15.625/perpetual      10Feb93                  167.35   125.00
    125  Aurora Electronics       SHORT         30Nov92 1331.48          -609.38
     25  Aurora Electronics             16Mar93   {AUR/ase}      312.50   121.88
    200  Campbell Resources             15Sep88   {CCH/nyse}     220.00   112.50
    300  Campbell Resources             14Dec88                  206.25   168.75
    125  Campbell Resources             26Dec90                   47.50    70.31
      1  Citicorp call$20/21Jan95              14Sep94 -2425.00         -2600.00
      1  Citicorp put$35/21Jan95        22Sep94   {CCIMG/cboe}    37.50    12.50
     14  Coherent Communications  SHORT          3Aug94   70.00          -213.50
    100  Glamis Gold               .12   1Jun89   {GLG/nyse}     109.00   887.50
     75  Hasbro .28               SHORT         30Nov92 2582.70         -2278.13
      1  Homestake LEAPcall$25/20Jan96  19Sep94   {LHMAE/cboe}   263.05   150.00
    100  Magma Copper B           SHORT  4Jan93         1294.75         -1712.50
    100  Magma Copper wt$8.50/30Nov95    4Jan93   {MCUws/nyse}   875.00   887.50
      3  MajMktIdx LEAP put$35/15Dec95  29Jul93   {LTBXG/ase}    735.46   356.25
      2  MajMktIdx LEAP put$40/21Dec96  14Oct94   {LTBXH/ase}    486.84   462.50
    100  Pegasus Gold              .10  25Apr91   {PGU/ase}     1122.33  1312.50
      1  Placer Dome LEAPcall$30/20Ja96 26Oct94   {LPDAF/cboe}   235.05   112.50
      2  S&P500 LEAP put$40/15Dec95     17Aug93   {LSXXH/cboe}   342.30   150.00
      2  S&P500 LEAP put$45/21Dec96     17Oct94   {LSZXI/cboe}   436.10   375.00
     40  Safeguard Scientifics    SHORT          6Dec85  181.78          -680.00
    100  Sunshine Mining                15Dec88   {SSC/nyse}     371.25   200.00
    200  Union Carbide .75        SHORT         19Aug94 6391.30         -5850.00
         CASH                                                   3320.24  3320.24
                                                        ------- ------- --------
                                                       11852.01 7882.27 -4793.57
SUMMARY - "Hedger's Delight":
             Original cost:            $10,455.77
             Present value:            $ 7,058.44
             Increase:                 $-3,397.33   [-32.49%]
             Yield:                    $   -81.00   [-0.77%]
The performance of this portfolio from January 1987 to the present (adjusted for the dilutive effect of added cash) is - 30.72%, for a compound annual rate of return of -4.55%.

COMMENT on "Hedger's Delight": By good-till-cancelled order filled, on October 25 I bought one Placer Dome LEAP call at $30.... just after the company announced a writedown in reserves. (Surprise, surprise!)

B. "Present and Future Income" - real portfolio, includes commissions:

                                                                         Current
    Shrs        Description             Bought  Sold On Sold At Cost Is   Value
    ---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- -------  -------
    100  Bank of NY wt$62/14Nov98        2Oct90   {BKNYW/otc}    222.35  1000.00
    128  Citizens Utilities 'A'     .75  8Apr91   {CZNA/nyse}    957.21  1696.00
     33  Continental Mortgage EqTr  .60 23Dec93   {CMETS/otc}    412.50   462.00
    3.2  Duke Realty Investments   1.80 14Dec87   {DRE/nyse}      66.00    79.20
    3.3  Duke Realty Investments   1.80 15Dec87                   68.75    81.68
    7.5  Duke Realty Investments   1.80 14Nov88                  193.60   185.63
    300  Hanson wtB,300pence/30Sep97    15Jan92   {HANwsB/ase}   126.10   103.13
    100  Manville wt$9.40/5Jun96        26Oct90   {MVLws/nyse}    71.10   187.50
    100  Northeast Util wt$24/5Jun97    15Nov93   {NUWTW/otc}    222.35   106.25
      8  Northeast Util wt$24/5Jun97    23Dec93                   18.00     8.50
     13  Southwestern Property Trst .88 31Dec93   {SWP/nyse}     164.13   146.25
         CASH                                                   8143.29  8143.29
                                                        ------- ------- --------
                                                               10665.38 12199.42
SUMMARY - "Present and Future Income":
             Original cost:            $ 9,548.98
             Present value:            $12,199.42
             Increase:                 $ 2,650.44   [27.76%]
             Yield:                    $   144.19   [1.51%]
The performance of this portfolio from January 1987 to the present (adjusted for the dilutive effect of added cash) is +42.96%, for a compound annual rate of return of 4.63%.

COMMENT on "Present and Future Income": The portfolio now shows the six-share September stock dividend (1.3%) on Citizens Utilities; and the cash balance reflects the fractional share sold, plus a dividend received from Southwestern Property Trust.

C. "Crapshooter's Folly" - real portfolio, includes commissions:

                                                                         Current
    Shrs        Description             Bought  Sold On Sold At Cost Is   Value
    ---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- -------  -------
    100  North Canadian Oils        .20 17Jan92  7Nov94 1047.61  902.35  +145.26
    ****************************************************************************
    100  Allou Health & Beauty    SHORT         13Jan94 1047.61          -750.00
    100  Allou Health & Beauty          18Mar93   {ALU/ase}      865.98   750.00
    100  Baker-Hughes wt$36.75/31Mar95   2Mar92   {BHICW/otc}    222.35     3.13
    100  Brock Exploration              25Feb92   {BKE/pse}      153.60   350.00
    100  Chemex Pharmaceut wt$6/31Mar94  4Dec89   {CHMXL/otc}     82.50     6.25
      2  Chyron                         21Dec89   {CHY/nyse}       4.12     1.00
    101  Chyron wt$.20/31Jan96          21Jan92   {CHYws/mse}    101.00    31.56
    200  Gulf Canada Resources           1Dec92   {GOU/ase}      579.85   650.00
    150  Medical Resource               17Jan92   {MRA/ase}      222.35   150.00
    200  National Enterprises           27Nov89   {NEI/nyse}     110.00    43.75
    100  Nabors Industries              30Jul93   {NBR/ase}      577.50   750.00
    100  Pride Petroleum Services       30Jan92   {PRDE/otc}     469.85   523.44
     39  Scios-Nova wt$26.75/30Jun98    19Dec89   {SCIOZ/otc}    165.00    97.50
    100  Smith Intern'l wt$8.28/28Feb95 27Dec91   {SIICW/otc}    304.85   600.00
    100  Tide West Oil wt$3/21Jun96     17Jan92   {TIDEW/otc}     71.10     3.13
    100  Unit Corp. wt$4.375/31Aug96    13Nov89   {UNTEW/otc}     68.75    43.75
    100  Vet Centers Am wt$7.20/10Oct96 10Mar92   {VCAIW/otc}    126.10   175.00
    100  Wendt-Bristol Hlth wtA/1May95  18May92   {WMDws/ase}    139.85    68.75
         CASH                                                  12239.76 12239.76
                                                       -------  ------- --------
                                                       1047.61 17406.86 15737.01
SUMMARY - "Crapshooter's Folly":
             Original cost:            $10,817.13
             Present value:            $16,784.62
             Increase:                 $ 5,967.49  [55.17%]
             Yield:                    $      .00  [0.00%]
The performance of this portfolio from January 1987 to the present (adjusted for the dilutive effect of added cash) is +70.97%, for a compound annual rate of return of 7.05%.

COMMENT on "Crapshooter's Folly": I tendered the 100 shares of North Canadian Oils for $14 Canadian. Too bad the Canadian dollar is in even worse shape than the U.S. dollar... the profit was minimal considering the length of time I owned the stock.

D. "Discards" - stocks even I have given up on for one reason or another (bankrupt company, too much paperwork, held too long with no profit, corrupt management, or change in personal objectives). This model portfolio includes commissions when I have actually sold my holdings, but does not include commissions when I still own the stock that was transferred to here from one of the other portfolios. (In the latter situation, I would probably have to PAY the broker to take the stuff off my hands.) I make no claims for the performance of this portfolio; I'm as curious as you are to see how it turns out.

                                                                         Current
    Shrs        Description             Bought  Sold On Sold At Cost Is   Value
    ---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- -------  -------
   1000  Altex Industries               23Dec93   {otc}           93.75    93.75
    200  Avitar                         23Dec93                   12.00    12.00
    500  Breakwater Resources           26Jun91   {BWRLF/otc}    250.00    62.50
    125  Horizon Resources               1Dec93   {otc}            7.81     7.81
         CASH                                                    172.36   172.36
                                                        ------- ------- --------
                                                                 535.92   348.42
SUMMARY - "Discards":
             Original cost:            $ 1,266.28
             Present value:            $   348.42
             Increase:                 $  -917.98  [-72.48%]
COMMENT on "Discards": There is no change from the last issue. The Professors' Investment Group is now meeting and, at my suggestion, has adopted the acronym PIG, but meaning "Peoples' Investment Group". But progress is slow.... no stocks may actually be bought until next May.

E. Commerce/INVEST/Bull&Bear IRAs - real portfolio, includes commissions:

                                                                         Current
    Shares         Description          Bought  Sold On Sold At Cost Is   Value
    --------  ------------------------- ------- ------- ------- -------  -------
       32     Berkshire Gas        1.08 11Apr88   {BGAS/otc}     560.00   464.00
       35.87  Bull&Bear Gold Investors  30Oct89   {BBGIX/otc}    577.64   594.01
        5     CIGNA 10Jul2010cvbd 82.00 12Oct90   {CI.CC/nyse}  3915.00  5225.00
      203     New Germany Fund      .50 20Dec91   {GF/nyse}     1977.50  2410.63
       40     New Germany Fund      .50  8Jun94                  476.00   475.00
      200     People's Bank of CT   .24 15Nov89   {PBCT/otc}    1690.21  2400.00
      100     Tuscon Electric Pwr 1.60j  4Oct89   {TEP/nyse}    2437.21   325.00
      100     Unicom Corporation   1.60 11Apr88   {CWE/nyse}    2728.83  2262.50
              Money market & accrued interest                   3323.14  3323.14
                                                              --------- --------
                                                             $ 17685.53 17479.27
SUMMARY - IRA:
             Original (1983-86) cost:  $ 8,326.19
             Present value:            $17,479.27
             Increase:                 $ 9,153.08   [109.93%]
             Current yield:            $   929.73   [5.27%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors) from January 1, 1987 to the present is +59.38%, for a compound annual rate of return of 6.10%.

COMMENT on IRAs: I have received notification that all of my IRA assets have been transferred to Fidelity; but I've been too busy to hook up my office PC to a modem (Fidelity does not provide entry via the Internet to customers). If I procrastinate long enough, the Macintosh version of the Fox software may make its appearance, and I won't need to use the PC at all.

F. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:


Date			Sold				Bought
27Jan92			stock @ 57.82		MM @ 13.34
10Mar92			MM @ 13.40			stock @ 56.95
13Mar92			stock @ 56.65		MM @ 13.41
29Apr92			MM @ 13.48			bond @ 31.19
19Jun92			bond @ 32.14		MM @ 13.55
29Jun92			MM @ 13.57			stock @ 56.74
24Jul92			stock @ 56.76		MM @ 13.61
29Oct92			MM @ 13.72			stock @ 58.61
23Dec92			stock @ 61.48		MM @ 13.78
Values on 18Nov94: stock, 70.50; MM, 14.72
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%
Gain, January 1 through September 30, 1994: 2.96%
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (6.75 years): 120.57%
Compound annual rate of return: 12.43% (My long-term target: in excess of 15%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained 125.96%, for a compound annual rate of return of 12.84%.

G. Current unfilled portfolio good-til-cancelled orders:

GTC sell - 500 Breakwater Resources @ 1/4, 100 Medical Resource @ 2-1/2. I am contemplating selling my CIGNA bonds and People's Bank shares at current market prices.

GTC BUY - 100 Amax Gold @ 5-1/2, 100 Horsham @ 9-1/8, 200 Manville 1996 warrants ($9.40 to 5Jun96) @ 1/2.

COMMENT on "Timer's Trend": We're still on a solid sell signal, with no relief in sight. Stay in cash (whose yield is now pushing 5%).

______________________________  TIMER'S TREND  _________________________________
Mon  2 May 94        .  I# .       | 3701.02  |-.                           *
Tue  3 May 94        . #I  .       | 3714.41  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed  4 May 94        .# I  .       | 3697.75  |-.                 *
Thu  5 May 94        .# I  .       | 3695.97  |-.                *
Fri  6 May 94     #  .  I  .       | 3669.50  | -           *
Mon  9 May 94    #   .  I  .       | 3629.04  | . - *
Tue 10 May 94        .# I  .       | 3656.41  | . -      *
Wed 11 May 94     #  .  I  .       | 3629.04  | .  -*
Thu 12 May 94        .# I  .       | 3652.84  | .  -     *
Fri 13 May 94        #  I  .       | 3659.68  | . -       *
Mon 16 May 94       #.  I  .       | 3671.50  | . -         *
Tue 17 May 94        . #I  .       | 3720.61  | . -                   *
Wed 18 May 94        .  I #.       | 3732.89  | -                        *
Thu 19 May 94        .  | #.       | 3758.98  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 20 May 94        . #|  .       | 3766.35  |-.                     *
Mon 23 May 94        .# I  .       | 3742.41  + .                *
Tue 24 May 94        .  |# .       | 3745.17  + .                 *
Wed 25 May 94        . #|  .       | 3755.30  |-.                   *
Thu 26 May 94        .  |# .       | 3753.46  |-.                   *
Fri 27 May 94        .  |# .       | 3757.14  + .                   *
Tue 31 May 94        . #|  .       | 3758.37  + .                    *
Wed  1 Jun 94        .  |# .       | 3760.83  + .                    *
Thu  2 Jun 94        .  |# .       | 3758.99  + .                    *
Fri  3 Jun 94        .  |# .       | 3772.22  + .                      *
Mon  6 Jun 94        .  |# .      }| 3768.52  + .                      *
Tue  7 Jun 94        . #|  .       | 3755.91  + .                   *
Wed  8 Jun 94        . #|  .      [| 3749.45  + .                  *
Thu  9 Jun 94        .# |  .       | 3753.14  |-.                   *
Fri 10 Jun 94        .  |# .      ]| 3773.45  |-.                       *
Mon 13 Jun 94        .  |# .       | 3783.12  |-.                         *
Tue 14 Jun 93        .  |  #       | 3814.83  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 15 Jun 94        .  #  .       | 3790.41  + .               *
Thu 16 Jun 94        .  |# .       | 3811.34  |+.                   *
Fri 17 Jun 94        .# |  .      [| 3776.78  + .            *
Mon 20 Jun 94     #  .  I  .      {| 3741.90  |-.     *
Tue 21 Jun 94    #   .  I  .       | 3707.97  |~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Wed 22 Jun 94        . #I  .       | 3724.77  | .-        *
Thu 23 Jun 94      # .  I  .       | 3699.09  | .  - *
Fri 24 Jun 94   #    .  I  .       | 3636.94 @|~.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Mon 27 Jun 94        #  I  .       | 3685.50  | .  -            *
Tue 28 Jun 94      # .  I  .       | 3669.64  | .  -         *
Wed 29 Jun 94        #  I  .       | 3667.05  | .  -        *
Thu 30 Jun 94     #  .  I  .       | 3624.96  | .  -*
Fri  1 Jul 94        .# I  .       | 3646.65  | . -     *
Tue  5 Jul 94        .# I  .       | 3652.48  | . -      *
Wed  6 Jul 94        .# I  .       | 3674.50  | .-            *
Thu  7 Jul 94        .  &  .       | 3688.42  | .-               *
Fri  8 Jul 94        . #I  .       | 3709.14  | -                    *
Mon 11 Jul 94        #  I  .       | 3702.99  | -                   *
Tue 12 Jul 94        .# I  .       | 3702.66  | -                   *
Wed 13 Jul 94        .  &  .       | 3704.28  | -                   *
Thu 14 Jul 94        .  |  #       | 3739.25  |-.                          *
Fri 15 Jul 94        .  |# .       | 3753.81  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 18 Jul 94        .  | #.       | 3755.43  + .                    *
Tue 19 Jul 94        .  #  .       | 3748.31  |+.                   *
Wed 20 Jul 94        #  I  .       | 3727.27  + .              *
Thu 21 Jul 94        . #I  .       | 3732.45  |-.               *
Fri 22 Jul 94        . #I  .       | 3735.04  |-.                *
Mon 25 Jul 94        .  &  .       | 3741.84  |-.                 *
Tue 26 Jul 94        .# I  .       | 3735.68  | -                *
Wed 27 Jul 94        #  I  .       | 3720.47  | -             *
Thu 28 Jul 94        . #I  .       | 3730.83  | -               *
Fri 29 Jul 94        .  |  #       | 3764.50  |-.                      *
Mon  1 Aug 94        .  |  .#     }| 3798.17  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue  2 Aug 94        .  |  #       | 3796.22  |+.                   *
Wed  3 Aug 94        .  |  #       | 3792.66  | +                   *
Thu  4 Aug 94        .  #  .       | 3765.79  | +             *
Fri  5 Aug 94        .# |  .      [| 3747.02  |+.         *
Mon  8 Aug 94        .  #  .      ]| 3753.81  + .           *
Tue  9 Aug 94        . #|  .      [| 3755.76  + .           *
Wed 10 Aug 94        .  |# .      ]| 3766.76  |-.             *
Thu 11 Aug 94        #  I  .      {| 3750.90  |-.          *
Fri 12 Aug 94        .  |# .       | 3768.71  |-.              *
Mon 15 Aug 94        .  #  .       | 3760.29  |-.            *
Tue 16 Aug 94        .  |  #      }| 3784.57  + .                 *
Wed 17 Aug 94        .  |  #       | 3776.48  + .               *
Thu 18 Aug 94        .  #  .       | 3755.43  |+.           *
Fri 19 Aug 94        .  |# .       | 3755.11  |+.           *
Mon 22 Aug 94        .  #  .      [| 3751.22  |+.          *
Tue 23 Aug 94        .  |  #      ]| 3775.83  |+.               *
Wed 24 Aug 94        .  |  #       | 3846.73  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 25 Aug 94        .  | #.       | 3829.89  |+.                *
Fri 26 Aug 94        .  |  . #     | 3881.05  | +                          *
Mon 29 Aug 94        .  |  .#      | 3898.85  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 30 Aug 94        .  |  . #     | 3917.30  | .+                      *
Wed 31 Aug 94        .  |  .#      | 3913.42  | . +                     *
Thu  1 Sep 94        . #|  .       | 3901.44  | .+                   *
Fri  2 Sep 94        .  |# .       | 3885.58  | +                 *
Tue  6 Sep 94        .  |# .       | 3898.70  | +                    *
Wed  7 Sep 94        .  |# .       | 3886.25  |+.                 *
Thu  8 Sep 94        .  |  .#      | 3908.46  |+.                      *
Fri  9 Sep 94       #.  I  .       | 3874.81  + .               *
Mon 12 Sep 94        #  I  .       | 3860.34  |-.            *
Tue 13 Sep 94        . #I  .       | 3879.86  |-.                *
Wed 14 Sep 94        .# I  .       | 3895.33  | -                   *
Thu 15 Sep 94        .  |  .#      | 3953.88  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 16 Sep 94        #  I  .       | 3933.35  |-.                *
Mon 19 Sep 94        .  &  .       | 3936.72  |-.                *
Tue 20 Sep 94     #  .  I  .      {| 3869.09  | -   *
Wed 21 Sep 94     #  .  I  .       | 3851.60  |~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Thu 22 Sep 94       #.  I  .       | 3837.13  |~.~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Fri 23 Sep 94       #.  I  .       | 3831.75  | . -  *
Mon 26 Sep 94       #.  I  .       | 3849.24  | .  -     *
Tue 27 Sep 94        .# I  .       | 3863.04  | . -         *
Wed 28 Sep 94        .  &  .       | 3878.18  | .-             *
Thu 29 Sep 94        #  I  .       | 3854.63  | .-        *
Fri 30 Sep 94        .  &  .       | 3843.19  | -       *
Mon  3 Oct 94        .# I  .       | 3846.89  | -       *
Tue  4 Oct 94    #   .  I  .       | 3801.13  |*.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Wed  5 Oct 94    #   .  I  .       | 3787.34  |~.~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Thu  6 Oct 94       #.  I  .       | 3775.56  | . - *
Fri  7 Oct 94        .# I  .       | 3797.43  | .  -    *
Mon 10 Oct 94        .  &  .       | 3821.32  | . -          *
Tue 11 Oct 94        .  I #.       | 3876.83  | .-                      *
Wed 12 Oct 94        . #I  .       | 3875.15  |-.                       *
Thu 13 Oct 94        .  I #.       | 3889.95  + .                          *
Fri 14 Oct 94        .  &  .       | 3910.47  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 17 Oct 94        .  &  .       | 3923.93  + .                      *
Tue 18 Oct 94        #  I  .       | 3917.54  |-.                     *
Wed 19 Oct 94        .  I# .       | 3936.04  + .                        *
Thu 20 Oct 94       #.  I  .       | 3911.15  | -                   *
Fri 21 Oct 94      # .  I  .       | 3891.30  | .-              *
Mon 24 Oct 94     #  .  I  .       | 3855.30  | . -      *
Tue 25 Oct 94      # .  I  .       | 3850.59  | . -     *
Wed 26 Oct 94       #.  I  .       | 3848.23  | .  -    *
Thu 27 Oct 94        . #I  .       | 3875.15  | .  -         *
Fri 28 Oct 94        .  I  #       | 3930.66  | .-                      *
Mon 31 Oct 94        . #I  .       | 3908.12  | -                   *
Tue  1 Nov 94     #  .  I  .       | 3863.37  | -          *
Wed  2 Nov 94        #  I  .       | 3837.13  | -    *
Thu  3 Nov 94        .# I  .       | 3845.88  | -      *
Fri  4 Nov 94     #  .  I  .       | 3807.52  |~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Mon  7 Nov 94      # .  I  .       | 3808.87  | .  -   *
Tue  8 Nov 94        #  I  .       | 3830.74  | . -        *
Wed  9 Nov 94       #.  I  .       | 3831.75  | . -        *
Thu 10 Nov 94      # .  I  .       | 3821.99  | .  -     *
Fri 11 Nov 94     #  .  I  .       | 3801.47  | .  - *
Mon 14 Nov 94        .# I  .       | 3829.73  | . -        *
Tue 15 Nov 94        #  I  .       | 3826.36  | . -       *
Wed 16 Nov 94       #.  I  .       | 3845.20  | . -           *
Thu 17 Nov 94     #  .  I  .       | 3828.05  | .  -       *
Fri 18 Nov 94     #  .  I  .       | 3815.26  | .  -    *
================================================================================
{, } = "Timer's Trend" (4% and 10% exponential) SELL ({) or BUY (}) signal
[, ] = 4% exponential change unconfirmed by 10% exponential (not a signal).
@ = market overbought or oversold. I or & (on baseline)=10% exponential SELL.

NEXT ISSUE - will appear about December 26. /Nick Chase